The unique nature of this most recent recession, marked by a very sharp contraction in economic activity due to government mandated limits on activity followed by unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus as well as a quick economic reopening, may have potentially created some logistical challenges. In other words, factories and other key elements of the global supply chain may have shut down for economic or health-related reasons, and now must get back online quickly to support significant demand stemming from cash rich households and businesses.

The US labor market will be in focus this week as ADP will report their estimate of payrolls in March followed by weekly data regarding initial and continuing claims for unemployment insurance on Thursday, which all leads up to the official March employment report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. As of this writing, surveys of economists anticipate that the US labor market will continue to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and recession.

Last Thursday the Conference Board released their monthly composite of leading economic indicators (“LEIs”). The composite tracks a wide range of economic activity including manufacturing, employment, housing, stock prices, credit conditions, interest rates, and consumer expectations.

Markets continued their climb last week with the S&P 500 once again reaching all-time highs and now within striking distance of 4,000. For now, market leadership has shifted from the large technology-related companies to more cyclical businesses such as financials and energy.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both rose approximately 1 percent last week as investors tracked progress in Washington toward another round of economic stimulus. As of this writing, the $1.9 trillion bill has been approved by the Senate, and is now back with the House of Representatives for final vote this week before going to President, Joe Biden, for signature.

Last week, risk assets generally trended sideways as investors watched for progress on the COVID-19 vaccine roll-out and a new fiscal stimulus bill. The S&P 500, a broad basket of large US companies, has advanced more than 4% so far in 2021.

US equity indices advanced last week, with the S&P 500 ending at a new all-time closing high. The increase is likely attributable to a combination of positive events, such as progress toward additional government stimulus, continued roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines, and better-than-expected fourth quarter results from S&P 500 companies.

US stocks rose last week after declining in January. With the week’s gain of nearly 4.7 percent, the S&P 500 index is now positive for the year by 3.6 percent.